Investment thesis template: make the decision auditable.
A useful thesis is not a bullish paragraph. It is a testable claim linked to evidence, expectations, portfolio relevance, invalidation, and a deliberate review date.
Start with one falsifiable economic claim. Then record what must be true, what would disprove it, what the price requires, and when you will review it again.
The evidence-led template
Use the fields below as one working record. Do not convert missing evidence into a neutral score or a convenient zero.
- Claim
- One falsifiable sentence: what economic mechanism should produce the result, for whom, and over what horizon?
- Evidence
- Primary-source facts with publication and availability dates. Keep facts separate from interpretation.
- What must be true
- The operating, competitive, capital-allocation, and valuation conditions required for the thesis to work.
- Contrary evidence
- The strongest source-backed case against the thesis. Record it before adding confirming evidence.
- Expectations
- What the current price appears to require and which assumptions are source facts versus model inputs.
- Portfolio consequence
- Known exposure, denominator quality, concentration limits, and any sizing state. UNKNOWN is not zero.
- Invalidation
- Observable evidence that would make the thesis materially less likely. A price decline alone is not an economic invalidation.
- Review contract
- A dated review trigger, open research questions, and a record of what was knowable when the decision was made.
A short hypothetical example
AI infrastructure supplier
Claim: The supplier can sustain above-market revenue growth for five years because switching costs and software integration preserve customer demand while unit economics remain attractive.
What must be true: Customer returns stay compelling, gross margin remains durable, and capital commitments do not absorb the cash flow required by the valuation.
Contrary evidence: Buyers report weaker returns, substitute systems close the performance gap, or support obligations rise faster than gross profit.
Invalidation: Primary evidence shows durable deterioration in customer economics or the cash-flow path required by the hurdle becomes infeasible.
Before you call it a decision
- Attach the exact source—not just a summary—to each material claim.
- Freeze the evidence set used for the decision; later facts belong to the next review.
- Separate a research action from a position-size or execution action.
- State the required return as a user requirement, not a forecast or confidence score.
- Retain losses, contrary evidence, revised views, and unresolved UNKNOWNs.
Why this structure matters
The SEC’s investor education guidance emphasizes researching an investment, reading disclosure documents, understanding risks, and relating an investment to the investor’s time horizon. This template turns those broad duties into a reviewable decision record.
See evidence, fundamentals, and valuation in context.
The preview contains public SEC financials and sample valuation inputs. It contains no personal holdings or decision history.